Wednesday, September 20, 2017
NZ A close election but Jacinda wins
Oh, the NZ polls have reversed themselves -- again. So Bill English is now ahead of Jacinda Hern.
This happened also last week--and then Labour was ahead. The Nats -- or as some call them, the Natz, intensified their propaganda about Labour tax policy. This is disingenuous -- because Labour has repeatedly said that tax policy is a matter for study, deliberation, and finally a vote.
But then Bill English has never been known for "truthiness".
Last week, the public responded to Natz propaganda -- then changed their mind, when Labour responded with...well...the truth. The Natz naturally doubled down, which is getting old, since the voters must notice they are not offering anything but same-old, same-old.
So the polls can go up. They can go down. Suddenly. And there is still the leader's debate to come. Jacinda Adern has LOTS of ammunition for that. While Bill has only canned spaghetti for his pizza.
When the election comes, it can go either way.
The"undecideds" are still clearly "undecided" -- but just clearly paying attention -- not a good thing for the Natz.
My guess is that the more the Natz push their propaganda -- the more people are likely to realize it is just that -- propaganda.
Then there is the Youth Vote-- which polls rarely assess accurately. It will be overwhelmingly pro-Labour -- if it comes out. And the Natz disinformation campaign promises to encourage their involvement. Jacinda, after all, is one of them.
Remember too that Labour can get fewer seats than the Natz -- but still form a government with a coalition .
I predict a Labour government.