Sunday, September 17, 2017

Jacinda will win

Jacinda Adern and the people who will give her power
My predictions about elections have been mostly right.  That includes Obama, Trudeau, Corbyn, and Trump.  This time up....New Zealand where the  the new Prime Minister will be Jacinda Hern.

About a week ago, I was asked for an opinion about the forex market.  At that time, NZ Labour had dropped well behind the NZ conservative party -- the National Party -- in the polls.  Expect the NZ dollar to fall -- then bounce back - fast.

I predicted the polls would reverse themselves -- and they have. In addition, as in the UK, polling does not take into account the youth vote -- which is solidly behind Jacinda Adern.

Don't believe me.  Add to this-- these facts
  •     The National Party has been in power long enough now for people to want a change
  •     The National Party has nothing much of interest to offer in terms of policies that address people's concerns, principally about housing prices and inequality.  They are the party of the Status Quo.
  •     Jacinda Adern gets the woman's vote as well as the youth vote-- just by being a woman
  •     Jacinda Adern is attractive, outgoing and has ideas
  •     Bill English, the current PM is boring.   A nice man but boring enough to get ridiculed by John Oliver (unfairly) for the way he makes pizza.  Solid, slow ....boring.
Does Bill English's NZ style pizza qualify him to be PM?

Kiwis may agree or disagree with Labour's programs -- but they are clearly going to "do" something -- so unless you are in that minority of people who are "comfortable" now and see the future as being "comfortable"
or have an ideological conviction that Leftists are all communists too, you will vote Labour .  
For ideologs, social democracy is communism

"Undecideds" will vote Status Quo when there are problems like unaffordable housing, poor infrastructure, inequality etc, etc -- but only once or twice -- after that -- they vote for somebody who promises to do something different.  
With appropriate governmental policies, Christchurch would have already recovered. Now it will take half a century.

In addition, ideological prejudice in New Zealand is less than in many countries such as the US and Canada, since Kiwi had a Labour government which governed successfully for many years and is responsible for many of the country's successes.  

The previous Labour government fell because people got tired of  Quo.  The National Party promised something different.  And John Key had charisma.   He was prettier than Helen Clark.

Now it's Adern who is the Pretty One.  

History repeats itself.

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